High prices cut Italians’ food consumption. In supermarkets and hypermarkets, sales are up but quantities sold are down, an unmistakable sign of generalized price hikes that are forcing Italians to lighten their shopping carts.
The dramatic trend is detailed by the 13th edition of the Immagino Observatory, carried out by GS1 Italy through analysis of label news of nearly 133 thousand references with NielsenIQ sales and consumption surveys.
Italians’ consumption harassed by high prices
‘Prices are rising and it is beginning to become clear how volumes are also decreasing, albeit differently among price ranges.
The smallest impact on consumption reduction is found in high-price range products, where buyers have better absorbed the increases while also initiating a compression of purchases.
Conversely, low-end products have experienced more significant volume compression,’ explains Marco Cuppini, the creator of the Immagino Observatory.
The Imagine meta-product
The nutritional composition of the basket of foods and beverages purchased in 2022 in hypermarkets and supermarkets, summarized in the Immagino meta-product, indicates a reduction for all items except protein (6g, -0.1%) that is essentially stable due to the great success of foods labeled as source of protein (sports food, semolina pasta, fresh desserts, cold cuts etc.).
Dietary fiber, the subject of lively (health) interest in the recent past, also gives way a little. After +2.3% at the end of 2021, they give up -0.4% (standing at 2.1g in the meta-product) in December 2022. The result can be explained by lower consumption of products such as flours/mixtures, frozen fruits and vegetables, dried legumes, whole wheat/spelt/kamut/legume base pasta, and rusks, and the increased role of fiber in sports nutrition products, preserved legumes, semolina pasta, and ready-to-eat pasta dishes.
‘Made in Italy‘ products in sharp decline
Sales of products with a labeled reference to “Italian-ness” suffer a drastic drop in sales. The burden of high prices shines through from the budget. Compared to 2021, the value of sales yes increased by +6.1% but volumes decreased by -5%.
Of the three hallmarks on the Made in Italy label,
– the Italian flag-the leading indicator by number of products (14,706) and turnover (over 6 billion euros)-loses ‘only’ -4 percent,
– ‘100% Italian’ drives sales by +9.2% in value but slumps -5% in volume,
– ‘Made in Italy’ is worse. Value sales remained stable (+0.4% over 2021), while volume sales dropped by -7.1%.
Geographical Indications (GIs)
Doc and Docg wines, dry charmat sparkling wine, classic method sparkling wine and mozzarella cheese are among the most distressed products in the basket of 4,367 certified products. Value sales stable (+0.2%), but volumes reduced by -6.7%.
Same trend for the more than 2,000 PGI and IGT products. In 2022 they gained a modest +1% in value (to nearly 631 mln euros in sales), but lost 6% in volume.
Only Umbria, Molise and Sardinia do well
The regional food origin recall is worth an increase in the amount of sales in only three regions:
– Molise (with the best sales figure in value, +24.8 percent and +5.9 percent in volume),
– Umbria (+10.5 percent in value, +3.9 percent in volume),
– Sardinia (+12.2% in value, +1.9% in volume).
First in the ranking in terms of turnover (€ 380 mln generated by 983 products) is confirmed as Trentino-South Tyrol, which, however, loses 5.4 percent in volume sales, particularly on Doc and Docg wines, classic method sparkling wine and sliced meats.
Sicily, second in the ranking with a turnover of 364 million euros generated by 1,161 references, increases value sales (+3.1%), but loses -6.9% in volume sales.
Piedmont ousted Emilia-Romagna from the podium and posted a turnover of more than 305 million euros (+4.% over 2021), with a -3.4% reduction in volume sales. They mainly lose Doc wines, sweet charmat sparkling wine and Uht milk.
Free from, 17 out of 100. Featured sugars
Products accompanied by a claim boasting theabsence or reduced presence of an ingredient, nutrient or additive now number nearly 17 out of 100. In 2022, they marked a turnover of more than 7.4 billion euros, up 6 percent. Again, however, volume sales decreased overall (-5.2 percent), with the exception of four claims.
Label reminders to the reduced amount of sugar still drove sales (by volume):
– ‘few sugars,’ +4.1%,
– ‘no added sugar’, +1.5%.
The other two claims that increase volume sales are:
–‘without antibiotics‘. +4.3 percent in volume, +17.2 percent turnover of the 261 foods so labeled. Again, information about the risks related to antimicrobial resistance (and animal welfare) appears to be beginning to guide consumer choices more strongly,
– ‘aspartame-free’, +2.2%, found on 64 products. The much-discussed synthetic sweetener lost appeal in 2022, and is likely to lose more, following its inclusion among the substances classified by IARC as ‘possible human carcinogens.’
Free from, the three champions
On the podium, by turnover, are free-from indications:
– ‘preservative-free’. The claim accompanies 4,363 products for a turnover of 2.7 billion euros, +3.7 percent. However, volumes plummeted, -7.9%, especially on mozzarella, strained Greek yogurt, snacks, frozen savory specialties, and mayonnaise. Between price increases and
shrinkflation
.
– ‘palm oil-free’. The claim attesting to the elimination of inexpensive tropical fat from industrial food recipes endures. It appears on 2,806 products, the source of nearly 1.7 billion euros in sales (+6.1 percent), also decreased in volume (-6.9 percent). Bad snacks, breakfast cereals, and traditional cookies,
– ‘Low fat,‘ a claim found on 3 thousand products, fares worse. Volume sales drop by -9.5 percent, while turnover grows by +5.9 percent. Consumers particularly give up strained Greek yogurt, sliced meats, mozzarella, and sweet snacks.
‘Rich in‘, protein and micronutrients on the rise
More than 10 thousand products are accompanied by a claim referring to the rich presence of a specific nutrient. The basket is worth 4.4 billion euros. As with almost all cases, sales increase (+7.8 percent) while volume sales decrease (-3.6 percent), compared to 2021.
Among the 12 ‘rich in’ claims monitored by the Immagino Observatory, the reference to protein stands out, present on 2,866 products generating sales of more than 1.4 billion euros (+15%). In comparison, however, volumes sold remain stable (+0.1 percent), driven by the phenomenon of high-protein fresh desserts.
The success is not replicated in the other two podium claims:
– ‘fiber’ generates a turnover of over 1.2 bn euros (+5.3%) but loses volume (-4.2%) due to price increases, especially for whole grain/multicereal cookies, snacks, and breakfast cereals.
– ‘Vitamins’ is present on more than 2 thousand products, whose sales grew by 5.8 percent to more than 1.1 billion euros. Down significantly, however, are sales volumes, -8.4 percent compared to 2021, especially on fruit base drinks, Uht and fresh milk.
Magnesium, potassium and zinc
The micronutrients magnesium, potassium, and zinc mentioned on the label are driving sales of sports foods, functional yogurt, and nuts.
Magnesium, highlighted on 431 products, increases sales by 13.5 percent, while volume sales hold with +3.9 percent.
Potassium follows a similar trend. It is recalled in the label of 246 products whose sales grow +7.7 percent in value (to over 60 mln euros) and +5.7 percent in volume.
Zinc, finally, in the basket marks record growth by volume, +6.6 percent, and increases turnover by +11.6 percent, to over 50 mln euros.
Otherwise, among the ‘rich in‘ two other claims deserve mention:
– ‘Whole-wheat‘ shows a fair decline in volume sales of -3.1 percent, especially among snacks and whole-wheat cookies. But high prices increased turnover by +5.8 percent to over 868 mln euros,
– ‘Lactic ferments’ yields little in volume (-0.1%), highlighting an interest in the probiotic halo that resists increases, with turnover increased by the much sharper +8.2% to 386 mln euros. Only functional yogurts lose share.
Food intolerances, ‘lactose-free’ grows
Foods accompanied by claims aimed at those with food intolerance follow the trend observed so far: increase in value sales (+6%), decrease in volume sales.
However, the basket overall shows a less pronounced contraction in volume sales (-3.3 percent).
The worst performers are ‘dairy-free’ and ‘gluten-free’ with AIC (Italian Celiac Association) logos, which lose 7 percent of sales. The reason is to be found in high prices.
Only two positive cases among products labeled as free of an allergen:
– ‘lactose-free‘ increases volume sales by +2.1 percent (+12.1 percent in value), thanks mainly to fresh desserts, granola and similar cheeses, functional yoghurt, Uht milk-based drinks, and supplements.
– ‘egg-free’ records +5 percent in value sales and keeps volume sales stable (+0.7 percent), thanks mainly to fresh non-stuffed pasta, health cookies, and mayonnaise.
Veg and surroundings
In the three claims indicating the absence of meat and/or animal ingredients, the trend observed in the other baskets due to high prices is repeated.
Veg. The claim used for foods suitable for vegan or vegetarian diets most important by turnover (2.1 bn euros, + 3.6 percent) records a -8.9 percent drop in volume sales. The worst results are for skyr strained Greek yogurt, mozzarella, mayonnaise and tomato puree.
Vegetarian. The 2,041 products so labeled are worth more than 1.4 bn euros (+4.6 percent), but volume sales give up quite a bit (-10.1 percent). Particularly bad skyr strained Greek yogurt, mozzarella, mayonnaise, and extrudates.
Vegan. The basket, which is worth 1 bn euros (+2% in 2022), loses -5.8% in volume sales, particularly on products that do not normally contain ingredients of animal origin, such as tomato purees, extrudates, infusions (others), and jams, as well as on fruit-based spreads and snacks.
Kosher and halal
The two claims indicating the suitability of a food for religious prescriptions have opposite trends:
kosher. Turnover grew by 6.2 percent to nearly 824 mln euros, but volumes sold fell by -4 percent, most markedly on tomato purees, extra virgin olive oil and ground coffee,
halal, in contrast, is associated with a double positive sign. Sales of the 486 products labeled as suitable for the Muslim diet grew in volume (+1.7 percent) and value (+7.3 percent). Among the liveliest categories are semolina pasta and sweet snacks.
Organic foods
Organic food, obtained without synthetic pesticides and with respect for animal welfare, is a protagonist of unstoppable success abroad if made in Italy, but suffers a reduction in consumption in Italy, as reported by the recent Biobank report.
The worst performers were fresh milk, jams and fruit-based spreads, while in value they also gave up on galette and whole-wheat/spelt/kamut/legume-based pasta.
Data from Osservatorio Immagino report that in supermarkets and hypermarkets the 8,272 products labeled ‘organic’ lost -2.3 percent in value and -9.4 percent in volume. Again, prices contribute to the trend. However, Cuppini points out,‘perhaps the reasons come from further afield (e.g. because of the strong competition that organic suffers from certified or supply chain products, whose customers are often positioned in higher income brackets).’
The ‘supply chain’ claim appears on the labels of 2,124 products, which in 2022 increased turnover by +12.1 percent, close to 1.4 billion euros, and lost only -0.7 percent in volume sales. The performance of some categories, such as Uht milk, semolina pasta, third cattle processing, sugar, and chicken, was excellent, while fresh milk dropped in volume.
The landscape of beneficial ingredients
Products presented on the label as containing one of the 36 beneficial ingredients monitored by Osservatorio Immagino continue to generate growing turnover, up 7.8 percent to more than 4 billion euros. Volume sales, however, are holding back, stopping at -4.7 percent at the end of 2022.
The 13,145 references in this macro-basket are sorted into 7 groups with varied trends, almost always united by declining sales, especially for increasingly expensive spices and superfoods.
1 – Traditional
In the first three‘traditional‘ ingredients in terms of importance, there are signs of
greedflation
:
– cocoa increases turnover, +10.2 percent, but loses in number of products sold (-2.4 percent). Especially for sweet spreads, recurrence eggs >30 grams, chocolate bars and bars,
– hazelnut increased sales by 15.3 percent but gave up 7 percent in volume, particularly for sweet spreads, followed by recurrence eggs and multipack ice cream,
– lemon is mentioned on the label of 1,586 products, which are worth nearly 528 million euros in sales, up 8.6 percent, but lose nearly a percentage point in volume sales, primarily on multipack ice creams.
2 – Superfruit
The second basket by value of sales in supermarkets and hypermarkets is the superfruit basket, which is headed by seven beneficial products/ingredients. In 2022, with 2,847 references, turnover exceeded 809 mln euros, +5.7%, but volume sales decreased overall by -6.6%.
Almond, the main claim, present on 1,302 products, increases turnover by 5.3 percent to over 413 mln euros, but gives up -5.5 percent in volumes sold. Very bad breakfast cereals, nuts without shells, and snacks.
Blueberry, the second largest, with more than 213 mln euros in turnover generated by 777 products, is worth a modest increase in value (+1.6 percent) and a pronounced decline in volumes sold (-8.7 percent). Greek strained skyr yogurt, whole yogurt, and breakfast cereals were the categories that suffered the most by volume.
Coconut. The 424 products accompanied by this claim record a drop in quantities sold of more than 14 percent, which the price increases, however, translate into a 5.3 percent increase in sales to more than 107 mln euros.
Against the trend are only two ingredients:
– avocados maintain a brilliant performance, with an increase in volumes sold of 13.2 percent, equal to a higher volume in value of 29.4 percent,
– mango, mentioned on the labels of 241 products, drives sales in volume (+1.2 percent) but especially in value (+14.7 percent), up to nearly 46 mln euros.
3 – Cereals and flours
The 2,155 products with at least one of the eight claims referring to as many grains or pseudocereals on the label are worth a turnover in supermarkets and hypermarkets of more than 551 mln euros, +2.3% compared to 2021, but with sales volumes decreased by -6.4%.
The most important claim in the basket is‘oats‘. It appears on 562 products, which in 2022 generated sales of more than 268 mln euros (+8%), but lost 3% of quantities sold. Bad whole-grain/multicereal cookies, breakfast cereals, and snacks.
Spelt
, in second place, appears on 875 products, worth more than 154 mln euros. Sales decreased in value (-1.9 percent) and volume (-12.5 percent), especially for whole grain/multicereal cookies, snacks, and cereals.
The only two claims among cereals with positive performance on the two selling sides are.
– rice flour, present in 146 products, with sales over 65 million euros (+12.4%) and quantities sold up +3.6% in volume. The largest volume sales are in crackers, followed by traditional cookies,
– cornmeal, reported on the label of 111 products generating sales of more than 32 mln euros, up +8.5% in value and +1% in volume.
The worst contraction in the cereals and flours group concerns kamut brand wheat. Quantities sold for the 184 products presented as containing this cereal plummeted by -26.5 percent, while in value the decline was -21.7 percent, for a turnover of 29 mln euros. By volume, the products that suffered the most were whole-wheat/spelt/kamut/legume-based pasta, crispbreads, and flatbreads.
4 – Sweeteners
Two sweeteners highlighted on the labels of 523 products are also monitored among the beneficial ingredients:
– stevia, recalled on 147 products, is a sweetener in vogue. Sales of products containing it grew both in volume (+7.5 percent) and value (+10.9 percent), reaching close to a turnover of 42 million euros. Leading the way are basic tea drinks, followed by sports nutrition products,
– Cane sugar, comparable to beet sugar, is associated with a turnover of 127 mln euros, stable with -0.2%, but marked by volume losses of -8.8%.
5 – Seeds
The Imagine Observatory monitors 5 claims related to the presence of as many seeds. Overall, this basket has 509 products worth 112 mln euros, usually with sales up in value (+3.2%) and down in volume (-4.5%).
The trend is positive only for flaxseed, +8.1 percent in volume and +18.1 percent in value. All others hurt. Pumpkin seeds, the first by value, gives up -4.1% in value and -8.1% in volume. Sesame seeds, -1% in value and -11.5% in volume. Less drastic was the balance for the chia seed claim, with sales at +7.2 percent in value and -0.3 percent in volume, especially for sandwiches and bi-compartmental yogurt. In sharp annual decline in both value (-15.4 percent) and volume (-17.5 percent) was the ‘hemp‘ claim, identified on the labels of 52 products that grossed more than 31 million euros.
6 – Spices
Negative trend also for the 901 products accompanied on pack by one of the three spice-related claims. Overall, in 2022, volumes sold decreased by -14.3 percent and sales by -7.7 percent to 87 mln euros.
Ginger, featured in 544 products, is worth 59 million euros, with sales down -5.7 percent in value and -10.7 percent. Bad infusions (others), teas, bars and chocolate bars.
Curcuma, featured in 239 products, is in sharp decline: -14% sales in value and -19.9% in volume. Infusions (other), flavorings and spices in contraction.
Cinnamon, featured on the label of 180 products, loses nearly 10 percent in value and a hefty -22.2 percent in volume. Ice cream multipacks in particular are losing share.
7 – Superfood
Curbs the attraction to superfoods. In total, the four monitored claims appear on the label of 154 products, which lose -12.6 percent of volumes sold and -8.6 percent of turnover (over 12 mln euros total).
‘Spirulina’
Is the champion among superfoods in 2022. Present on 26 products, its claim managed to increase volume sales by +14.1 percent despite strong price growth, which brought +30.3 percent turnover, totaling 2.2 million euros. Driving the growth were gluten-free pasta, smoothies/shakes, and fresh juices.
Relatively stable is the trend of the‘matcha‘ claim, with +0.9% in value and -1% in volume compared to 2021. Smoothies/frappes and fresh juices grow, tea, ground coffee and sweet snacks drop.
The ‘açai’ claim loses share in both value (-9.2 percent) and volume (-11.9 percent), billing 2.7 million.
‘Goji’ suffers the worst result, -23.7 percent in value and -26 percent in volume, mainly for dehydrated and coated dried fruits and Uht juices.
Emerging superfoods
In addition to the beneficial ingredients just commented on, Osservatorio Immagino has been monitoring four others that embody emerging trends of interest since 2022:
The ‘tahini’ (or ‘tahina’) sauce soars in growth in both value (+34.7 percent over 2021) and volume (+33.2 percent). Ethnic specialty, vegetable sauces and spreads, and ready-made sauces and gravies categories increase, and sauces and pates decrease.
Peanut butter, dragged by a boom in supply (+67.8 percent over 2021), and despite a -22.9 percent drop in the demand component, increases volumes sold by +30 percent and turnover by +44.9 percent. Among the 36 products that call it out on the label, sweet spreads and low-fat yogurt lead the way.
‘Edamame’ soybeans, recalled in 32 products, grew by +14.1 percent in value, but gave up -12.3 percent in volume, particularly for fish-based main courses.
The claim ‘royal jelly’ found on 45 products marks -3.8% of sales in value and -10.2% in volume. The most declining category is functional yogurt, followed by energy drinks.
Processing method
The labels of 3,756 products refer to the method of processing, highlighting the craftsmanship of a particular stage of production or the use of techniques that enhance its sensory or nutritional aspects.
During 2022 this basket achieved value growth of +7.5 percent, mainly dictated by price increases as the volume trend was negative -5.2 percent.
The ‘non-fried’ claim alone escapes this trend, thanks to growth in both turnover (+12.1 percent) and quantities sold (+6.5 percent), particularly for extruded, savory out-of-order, and crispbreads.
The texture of food: crispy, creamy and soft
The texture (or consistency) of the food is highlighted with a claim in 7,213 products. In line with the general trend, against +6.1 percent in value, sales lost -7.7 percent in volume. The growth thus depends mainly on rising shelf prices, which affected all 11 monitored claims.
Crunchy is confirmed as the leading claim in both number of products (1,668) and turnover (more than 1 billion euros). The slight growth in value (+0.7%) is accompanied by a sharp decline in volume (-13.4%).
Creamy, the second-largest claim, scores +4.8 percent in value and -8.5 percent in quantities sold. Bad yogurt and similar, baked goods and cereals, cheeses, and hot drink preparations.
Similar scenario for the‘soft‘ claim, detected on 962 products: value sales increase (+9%), volume sales decrease (-2.6%).
Professional journalist since January 1995, he has worked for newspapers (Il Messaggero, Paese Sera, La Stampa) and periodicals (NumeroUno, Il Salvagente). She is the author of journalistic surveys on food, she has published the book "Reading labels to know what we eat".
