The Coop 2022 Report, presented on 8.9.22 in a digital preview, offers an analysis of the effects of the systemic crisis–war, inflation and recession, climate crisis–on the daily lives of Italian residents.
Looking forward to the general winter, the only good news is the resilience of Italians. Who have so far managed not to give up food consumption, despite economic and social difficulties.
Coop report 2022, the dark scenario
The scenario following the European Union’s engagement in the fratricidal conflict in Ukraine is increasingly dark. The Coop Report summarizes some aspects of this:
- food poverty is growing rapidly (partly due to commodity speculation),
- Europe’s trade balance is sinking like never before,
- Climate emergency has deadly impact on everyone’s daily life
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict blew on the fire, generating an immediate recessionary effect on the world economy:
- global GDP expects a decline from +5.7 percent in 2021 to a projected +2.9 percent in 2022.
- for Italy, GDP growth forecasts stand at +3.2 percent for 2022 and +1.3 percent for 2023. But Bank of Italy does not rule out a return to negative GDP in 2023 (-2%).
The impact of the crisis on food consumption
The food supply chain is stressed by the current crisis, given the involvement of global supply chains.
Inflation in Italy on processed food products reached +10 percent. Slightly worse so far than Germany (+13.7 percent) and Spain (+13.5 percent).
Italians’ food consumption, moreover, is still resisting high prices:
- sales volumes mark +7.8% (first half of 2022 vs. 2019), with a
- trend still positive. + 0.5 percent in Italy, compared with -5.4 percent in the UK, -3.7 percent in Germany, -2.3 percent in France and -1.3 percent in Spain.
Winter just around the corner saves food
The general winter will bring with it further increases in food prices, as well as electricity and gas bills. But Italians still do not seem to care about the trouble (nor its causes).
Nearly half of citizens, according to Nomisma’s sample poll projections, say they are willing to reduce the quantity but not the quality of food. Cooking more, as in lockdown.
Less food, but Italian and sustainable
Italianness and sustainability are the attributes of foods that the sample of respondents say are indispensable. At the expense of ethnic, free-from, convenience foods. Organic could also lose ground (-38%), unfortunately. A sign that Italian consumers still do not understand its essential and unparalleled value for health LINK BIO AND IMMUNITARY SYSTEM and combating the climate emergency.
Private labels (private label, MDD) continue to develop, with market share approaching 30 percent in 2022 (+2.0 compared to 2019). And the branded industry (IDM), as a result, loses ground. With further decrease, -1.8%, compared to 2019 (with a market share from 14.9% to 13.1%).
Retail in the vice
For the large-scale retail sector, the current crisis poses major critical issues. In fact, distributors are squeezed between rising industrial prices and high energy prices and consumers’ reduced purchasing capacity.
Some items of imbalance are unsustainable:
- in the face of an annual increase in the prices of food goods sold by industry to large-scale retail chains of 15 percent, sales inflation barely exceeds +9 percent (the differential between purchase and sales price marks a -5.7 percent to the full detriment of large retailers). However, the biggest price increases hit basic products. Seed oil marks +40.9%, olive oil +33.1%, pasta +30.9%, flour +25.4%,
- energy costs of large-scale retailers, which were worth 1.7 percent of sales in 2019 based on energy futures, will triple to 4.7 percent in 2022 and 5.2 percent in 2023,
- food retail is a structurally low-profitability sector, where small changes in margins can seriously jeopardize the resilience of profit and loss accounts. Every 100 euros spent by the consumer generates a net profit for the retailer of just over 1.5 euros.
Discount and ecommerce
In 2022, after the slowdown imposed by the first phase of the pandemic, large-scale retail marks a slight return to area expansions, mostly at the expense of proximity stores. Instead, discount stores are still growing, while the decline of the hypermarket continues.
Ecommerce(e-grocery) has lost the boost dictated by lockdowns and remains at very low shares especially when compared to the rest of Europe. In 2021 it stands at 2.9 percent with 2030 forecasts of no more than 6 percent compared to far more dynamism in the home of the British (from 12 percent to 19 percent) or the French (from 8.6 percent to 16 percent).
The beacon of Coop brand product
The scenario noted in the Coop 2022 Report seems to reward Coop’s decision, announced in May 2022, to invest more in branded products.
‘Itmay have been a reckless choice according to some, but one born of objective data that the Coop 2022 Report confirms,’ comments Maura Latini, managing director of Coop Italia.
The choice seems well settled. ‘In the breakfast segment, the first to be revamped, we record in the first two months of launch (June/July) an increase in market share of the quantity branded product by 8.3 percent, thus rising from 23.6 percent to 31.9 percent. The savings potential for households is considerable. First results in a not easy conjuncture that we claim with a fair amount of pride‘.
Defending purchasing power
‘After 30 years, the caravan is back‘ with high inflation not seen since the 1980s; for many consumers and businesses, this is a completely unfamiliar situation. Likewise, wages remain frozen, and striking in the Report is the widening gap between a growing part of the country that remains fragile and the more affluent classes‘, recalls Marco Pedroni President of Coop Italia and Ancc-Coop (National Association of Consumer Cooperatives). ‘
Ahead of the electoral appointment, a request already made is reiterated. ‘There is aneed (…) to divert incisive resources in favor of consumption by acting, for example, on the defiscalization of basic products and with a renewed environmental policy in line with the emergency of the moment.’
All numbers from the Coop 2022 Report
The Coop Report 2022 – ‘Consumption and Lifestyles of Today’s and Tomorrow’s Italians’-is compiled by the Study Office of Ancc-Coop (National Association of Consumer Cooperatives) with the scientific collaboration of Nomisma, analysis support from Nielsen and original contributions from Gs1-Osservatorio Immagino, Iri Information Resources, Mediobanca Ufficio Studi, Nomisma Energia, Npd.
All infographics from the Report are available at this link.
Professional journalist since January 1995, he has worked for newspapers (Il Messaggero, Paese Sera, La Stampa) and periodicals (NumeroUno, Il Salvagente). She is the author of journalistic surveys on food, she has published the book "Reading labels to know what we eat".
