The news of a ‘wargame’ conducted in Brussels in February 2024 – designed to simulate a large-scale food crisis within the European Union, and analyze the response capacity of institutions and stakeholders – went almost unnoticed, despite its significant relevance. Bloomberg offered some helpful insights into what happened. (1)
1) Food crisis in the European Union, wargame
Around 60 European Union officials and the governments of the Member States, together with food safety experts, industry representatives and some journalists, gathered for two days in a central Brussels building to discuss the possibility of a widespread food crisis across the entire Old Continent .
‘Food shortage in Europe? The only question is when, but they don’t listen to us ‘. The simulation considers the combined forces of El Niño and La Niña, which would have paralyzed soybean production in Latin America, the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict, rising demand from China, and the desertification of the Mediterranean.
Internal tensions – starting with the protests of European farmers, exacerbated by the interruption of supplies to supermarkets – would have contributed to creating an emergency scenario, amplified by the media with articles and videos of drought, floods and civil unrest.
2) Crisis tests
Crisis tests and ‘stress tests’ are recommended or even mandated, depending on the circumstances, to assess a system’s ability to deal with critical situations. This is particulary relevant for updating the system, as such tests could help in designing appropriate policies to achieve the desired purposes.
‘Expect a certain level of chaos’, warned Piotr Magnuszewski, a systems modeler and Game Designerwith experience at the United Nations. ‘ You may be confused at times, lacking sufficient information [to make appropriate decisions, ed.]’.
Priotr Magnuszewski – who is also scientific director of the Center for Systems Solutions in Wroclaw, Poland (2) – also highlighted how government exercises in Europe are very rare, especially on the subject of ‘food security’.
3) Current affairs and complexity
The past four years in fact, have already seen various sudden economic crises with varying impacts on ‘food security’, due to multiple causes. The lockdowns imposed during the pandemic, the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, the disruptions in major transport routes and above all the speculations of global monopolists in agricultural inputs and commodities. (3)
‘ The relevance of the topic was incredibly spot on ‘ (Katja Svensson, Senior Advisor for Food Systems at the Nordic Council of Ministers).
The question raised by the participants in the wargame is therefore not when a large-scale food crisis can occur, but rather how many crises can be managed simultaneously. ‘ There is still a lot to do at all levels. Crises will only come faster and harder ‘ (Chris Hegadorn, former US diplomat now professor of global food policy at Sciences Po, Paris).
4) Prevent the crisis
Preventing a ‘food security’ crisis is fundamental tomitigating its potentially catastrophic effects on populations. A growing share of residents in the European Union, 1 in 4 in countries like Italy, is now at risk of poverty and social exclusion. (4)
Food systems are fragile, as noted by FAO in the SOFI report (State of Food Security and Nutrition on the world) 2023. And inflation forces the lower-income groups to turn to junk food, with greater risks of NCDs (Non-Communicable Diseases). (5)
‘Focus now on short-term solutions without considering long-term consequences or integrating the bigger picture exacerbates future risks (…). Investing in a transition to healthy and sustainable food systems is now essential to increase our resilience against future crises and ensure a safe and livable planet for generations to come. ‘ (6).
Dario Dongo
Footnotes
(1) Agnieszka de Sousa, Michael Ovaska. Europe Is Wargaming a Food Crisis. Bloomberg. 6.3.24 https://tinyurl.com/3pnzmssb
(2) Priotr Magnuszewski. ResearchGate https://tinyurl.com/y4hnwyk5
(3) Dario Dongo. The tentacles of finance on food sovereignty and our food . GIFT (Great Italian Food Trade).
(4) Dario Dongo, Andrea Adelmo Della Penna. Minimum income, poverty and social exclusion . Egalité. 19.3.24
(5) Dario Dongo, Alessandra Mei. FAO, SOFI report 2023. The hidden costs of agri-food systems. GIFT (Great Italian Food Trade). 13.11.23
(6) Dario Dongo. From Farm to Fork to Farm to War, the appeal of science for a resilient food strategy . GIFT (Great Italian Food Trade).
Dario Dongo, lawyer and journalist, PhD in international food law, founder of WIISE (FARE - GIFT - Food Times) and Égalité.
