Food consumption in Italy is still oppressed by high prices that reduce the shopping cart to the bare minimum. Turnover grows, and volumes sold fall. In this scenario, however, marked trends emerge, as summarized by the 2023th edition of the Observatory Immagino, which photographs the scenario in December XNUMX.
The GS1 Italy report, born in 2016, analyzes the labels (with more than one hundred variables) of over 139 thousand products sold in supermarkets and hypermarkets and integrates the examination with consumption and sales data collected by NielsenIQ.
The meta-product of the Observatory Immagino
The metaproduct is a summary statistical indicator, developed by the Observatory Immagino, which makes up an average nutritional label of food consumption in Italy.
The average nutritional table is characterized, in the second half of 2023, by the increase in proteins and the reduction of sugars, with stable fats and carbohydrates. The latter is confirmed as the first macronutrient (19,3%). The sub-component of simple sugars decreases, thanks to the lower consumption of sugar, cola, fresh milk, nectars and similar, multipack ice creams, orange soda, 100% juices, tea-based drinks e fruit-based drinks 30-99%, varyingly generous in sugar intake, as we have seen.
The fats, in second place, are stable (8,6%). Less extra virgin olive oil, olive oil, tuna in oil, seed oil, fresh milk, dried fruit in shell, multipack ice creams, frankfurters, fresh ready-made sauces and stretched curds for cooking are consumed.
More protein and fiber
Proteins are growing again (+1,3%, to 6,7%), thanks to the greater consumption of chicken eggs, sports foods, parmesan cheeses and similar, traditional biscuits, dried fruit without shells, strained Greek yogurt/Skyr, yogurt whole milk, fermented milk/kefir, tomato puree and sweet spreads.
Dietary fiber slightly growing (2,1%, +0,5%), finally, thanks to the consumption of sports foods, traditional biscuits, dried fruit without shells, dried legumes, tomato puree, pastries and milk substitutes.
Made in Italy, only the PDOs are saved
The reference to Italianness on the label loses appeal. For the over 26 thousand products thus identified, 2023 ended with a -4,5% decrease in volumes sold, compared to a +7,4% increase in turnover. The high prices have cut the purchases of foods clearly presented on the label
– Italian flag (-4,1% volume sales compared to 2022), especially bad multipack ice creams, fresh milk and frozen pizza products
– 100% Italian (-5,3%, especially for fresh milk, multipack ice creams and alcoholic beers)
– produced in Italy (-7%, in particular for Easter eggs, frozen breaded prepared fish and Italian DOC and DOCG wines).
Protected geographical indications too give way. Only the PDOs are saved. In particular among the first three protected names
– the 2.291 DOC wines are first in number. In 2023 they produced over 533 million euros in sales, +3,2% in value and -3,8% in volume
– the 1.328 PDO products are first in terms of sales value, almost 716 million euros. In 2023 they recorded the highest growth rate in value (+9,1%) and – the only case in the Italian basket – also an increase of +1,6% in volume,
– the 992 DOCG wines suffered a decline in volume sales of -3,6%. Thanks to the increases, the turnover still grew by +1,7%, up to over 298 million euros,
– Finally, in 2023 IGP and IGT experienced a collapse in numerical sales (-5%) and a minimal increase in turnover, +1,7% to 298 million euros.
The regional origin
The regional origin is indicated on 10.420 products. As expected, in 2023 sales increased in value (+5,2%, to over 3 billion euros) and decreased in volume (-3,7%).
The most relevant trend belongs to Molise, followed by Puglia, Sardinia, Valle d’Aosta and Basilicata, all regions with double-digit growth.
Only five regions also closed in 2023 with a positive sign in volumes sold: Molise, Basilicata and Valle d’Aosta increased them, while Abruzzo and Puglia kept them basically stable.
The top five regions in the ranking
The top five are made up like this:
– Trentino Alto Adige is still at the top of the rankings. Classic sparkling wine, diced cured meats, apples and semolina pasta contribute to the decline in volume sales (-2,7%).
– Sicily confirms the second position, with 1.194 products. In 2023 it recorded a trend of +2,4% in value and -6,7% in volumes, penalized by the negative trend of oranges, multipack ice creams, mozzarella and alcoholic beers
– Piedmont, is firmly in third place, with growth in value of +3,8% and a decline in sales in volume, -7,1%, especially in third beef processing, in other traditional fresh cheeses and in DOC and DOCG wines
– Emilia Romagna, with an increase in value sales of +8,4% and a contraction in volume sales of -4%. Wines (Igp, Igt, Doc and Docg), egg pasta and honey were among the categories in the greatest decline
– Veneto, with 794 products with a turnover of 286 million euros (+6%) and also holding up overall in volume (-0,5%). The decline in DOC and DOCG wines, fresh milk and nectars and the like is partly offset by the positive dynamics of tomato puree.
‘Free from’
The free from basket – over 14 thousand foods whose labels boast the absence of some ingredients or nutrients – are worth overall a turnover of 8,1 billion euros, up +9,7%. On the contrary, volumes closed the year with a negative trend (-3,5%).
Among the claims monitored, five also increased their sales volumes, as is now customary, well below the increase in turnover. In order of market share, they are
– ‘Low fat’, stable with +0,4% in volume (+11,5% turnover). They drive strained Greek yogurt/Skyr, traditional biscuits, turkey and UHT milk.
– ‘Low sugar’, +1,9% (+18,3% in value). Among the brightest categories are fruit-based jams and spreads, traditional biscuits, preserved fruit, 30-99% fruit-based drinks, bases and colas.
– ‘With no added sugar’, +5,4% (+18,5% in value). Very good fruit-based jams and spreads, preserved fruit, traditional biscuits and fruit-based drinks 30-99%.
– ‘Without hydrogenated fats’ +1,7% (+15,2% turnover). Sales of healthy and traditional biscuits, pastries, ready-made cakes and margarine are growing.
– ‘Without aspartame’, +5,1% (+10,8% in value). The synthetic sweetener – considered by IARC to be a possible carcinogen – is increasingly discarded by consumers. They drive sweeteners, orange soda and cola.
‘Rich in’
The 11 thousand foods naturally rich or enriched with beneficial components, increased turnover by +2023% in 10. Volumes sold instead decreased by -2,2%, with only two exceptions:
– ‘probiotics’, remained substantially stable, with sales volumes at +0,3%, above all thanks to fermented milk/kefir, whole yogurt and crescenza,
– ‘proteins’, the main claim by turnover (+12,8%, up to 1,88 billion euros) in the ‘rich in’ basket grew in volume by +1,2%. Very good fresh and UHT milk, parmesan cheeses and similar, basics and sports nutrition.
Foods for food intolerances
The almost 11 thousand products proposed as suitable for people with food intolerances are also harassed by high prices. Turnover grew overall by +6,2% (to over 4,7 billion euros) but sales in volume decreased by -3,9%.
The bad streak for volume sales concerns
– ‘gluten-free’ (-4,4%),
– ‘lactose-free’ (-1,3),
– ‘gluten-free with AIC logo’, Italian Celiac Association (-7,3%),
– ‘without milk’ (-5,1%),
– ‘without yeast’ (-3,1%).
The ‘egg-free’ claim is an exception. The smallest segment of the basket has in fact also grown in volume (+3,6%), especially thanks to fresh unfilled pasta, fresh gluten-free pasta, gluten-free pasta and healthy biscuits.
Lifestyle at the table
Among the five claims which identify products consistent with a specific lifestyle, overall the gap between an increase in turnover (+8,7%) and a decrease in sales volumes (-2,4%) appears again.
Three calls the absence (total or partial) of ingredients of animal origin,
– ‘veg’, which is worth 24 billion euros, recorded +10,4% in sales value and -1,6% in volume performance. Very bad, by volume, ready-made first courses, whole and portioned table cheeses, fresh industrial cheeses, sliced cheeses and multipack ice creams
– ‘vegetarian’, with turnover at +9% and volumes at -3,1%, falls in the same categories as the ‘veg’ claim
– ‘vegan‘ finally, increased sales in value (+11,9%) and volume (+0,2%). Fruit-based jams and spreads as well as natural vegetable/fruit frozen foods are good.
Biological
The ‘organic’ claim on 8.200 references in 2023 it will develop more than 1,2 billion euros in sales, +2,8%. Sales volumes, however, fell -5,1%. Especially bad is fresh milk, fourth-range vegetables, biscuits, wholemeal/spelt/kamut/legume-based pasta and even chicken eggs.
Organic food, however, is often purchased in farmers’ markets and specialized shops, sales channels which are still not considered in the Osservatorio Immagino.
Kosher and halal
The same consideration this applies to foods certified as kosher or halal, available especially in dedicated commercial establishments. In the supermarket and hypermarket channel, the two claims relating to religious prescriptions have a different trend:
– ‘kosher’, suitable for the Jewish religion, appears on 1.710 products and grows in value by +10,3%, up to over 921 million euros. In terms of volume, however, it lost -1,4%, mainly due to extra virgin olive oil, ground coffee, fruit-based jams and spreads, pralines and chocolates,
– ‘halal’, present on 521 products, is experiencing a successful 2023, thanks to the increase in foreigners of Muslim faith from Bangladesh and Afghanistan. The growth is +16,7% in value (for a turnover of over 269 million euros) and +5,9% in volume, especially thanks to semolina pasta, parmesan cheese and similar products and frozen natural vegetables/fruits.
‘Beneficial’ ingredients
Among the foods with evidence of a ‘beneficial’ ingredient on the label, the general contrast between increasing turnover and decreasing quantitative sales is fully confirmed.
One Traditional mode. Seven claims recall the most loved ‘traditional’ products in Italy. Cocoa, hazelnut, lemon, vanilla, pistachio, walnuts and caramel. The drop in sales in volume is generalized and double-digit in three cases: hazelnut (-12,9%), vanilla (-14,6%) and caramel (-12,9%).
Superfruit. The same trend for the seven superfruits monitored, with a drop in volume sales of -4,4%.
Almond and blueberry lose sales in volume by -7,4% and -7,9% respectively.
Three exceptions. The amount of sales in volume increases by
– cashews, +5,2%,
– avocado, +24,1%, in the sign of growth that seems unstoppable in recent years,
– coconut water, essentially stable at +0,6%.
Rice and oats, the exceptions
In the group of super cereals and flours, oats, rice flour and rice oil are the only ones to boast an increase in sales in volume: +4,1%, +1,6% and +5,3%.
Of the two sweeteners monitored, sales in volume plummeted by -7,5% for cane sugar and remained essentially stable for stevia, -0,1%, against a turnover increased by +5,6%.
Among the seeds, compared to an overall increase in value sales (+6,8%) and a decline in volume sales (-4,5%), we note the drastic reduction in the number of purchases of pumpkin seeds (-9,2, 11,9%) and hemp seeds (-XNUMX%).
The spices recorded a negative performance in 2023, especially in terms of volume (-10,5%) but also in value (-2%). For the latter, the collapse is -10% for ginger, -17% for turmeric and -8,1% for cinnamon.
Superfood
Superfoods, the last group of beneficial ingredients monitored by Osservatorio Immagino, are also in the wake of price increases: the value of sales increased by +2,8% while volumes decreased by -2,7%.
‘Royal jelly’ is the claim with the highest turnover: 20,3 million euros developed by 48 references. Sales grew in value (+6,8%) and, albeit slightly, also in volume (+0,8%).
‘Peanut butter’ is in second position in terms of turnover, 18,4 million euros from just 50 products. Sales growth is double-digit in both value (+15,7%) and volume (10,7%). Sweet spreads, milk-based drinks and wafers performed well.
‘Edamame’, with 7,5 million euros in turnover and 28 products on shelves, in 2023 will lose -7,9% in value and -13,8% in volume.
‘Goji’ and ‘Acaj’ plummet with reduced volume sales of -25,9% and -41% respectively.
‘Matcha’, ‘spirulina’ and ‘tahina’ however, held up with quantitative sales at +0,7%, +4,1% and +2,7%.
Processing method
‘Artisanal’ goes against the trend compared to the other claims on the processing method. Found on 752 products, it increased sales in value by +21,6% (for a turnover of 143 million euros) and in volume by 17,1%, especially thanks to frozen pizza.
‘Drying’ is the only other claim the group has made that holds up. Typical of dried pasta, the recall marks an increase in sales of +7,8% in value and +3,1%.
Very bad sales in volume of ‘hand-processed’ (-13,2%), ‘unfiltered’ (-17,1%) and ‘smoked’ (-10,3%). With regard to this last claim we recall the recent decision by the European Commission to refuse the renewal of the authorization of smoke flavorings as they are genotoxic, but maintaining them in foods for a further five years.
Falling also volume sales of products with the claim ‘cold extracted’, essentially extra virgin olive oil. The increases increase turnover by +31,5%, but reduce sales in volume by -3,1%.
Food texture
The texture of the food (the texture) represents an attraction for consumers. The related claims appear on 7.792 references, which generated over 2023 billion euros in sales in 1,4. The sales trend is positive in value (+10,4%) but negative in volume (-4,1%).
Among the 11 claims monitored, only two recorded a positive sign in volume sales:
– ‘soft’ with +1,3% (+14,2% in value) is driven by pancarrè, pan bauletto, sandwich bread and cold cuts. It is worth a turnover of 532 million euros,
– ‘coarse’ with +0,9% (+13,7% in value) totals a turnover of 206 million euros. Semolina pasta and wholemeal, spelled and kamut pasta are very good, as well as legumes.
Footnotes
(1) Osservatorio Immagino 2024.1. GS1 Italy https://servizi.gs1it.org/osservatori/osservatorio-immagino-15/
Professional journalist since January 1995, he has worked for newspapers (Il Messaggero, Paese Sera, La Stampa) and periodicals (NumeroUno, Il Salvagente). She is the author of journalistic surveys on food, she has published the book "Reading labels to know what we eat".
