The global agrifood systems are experiencing unprecedented transformation driven by technological advances, climate change, resource scarcity, and evolving consumption patterns. A recent Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) provides a foresight exercise to identify and assess 44 emerging new food sources and production systems (NFPS) expected to shape the food landscape over the next 25 years (Mukherjee et al., 2025).
The FAO study represents a critical response to the urgent need for transformative processes that create more sustainable, inclusive, and resilient agrifood systems. As reactive approaches become increasingly inadequate amid rapid global changes, forward-looking methodologies such as foresight provide essential tools for proactively identifying emerging issues and preparing for associated benefits and risks.
Methodology
Study design and participants
The FAO food safety foresight programme employed a mixed qualitative and semi-quantitative approach through a structured multi-phase foresight exercise. The methodology integrated horizon scanning, expert consultation, and systematic assessment techniques to explore the future new food sources and production systems (NFPS) landscape comprehensively (Mukherjee et al., 2025).
The exercise involved 17 international experts representing diverse geographical regions and professional backgrounds, including academia, national food safety authorities, UN agencies, non-governmental organisations, and the private sector. This diversity was essential for capturing multiple perspectives on emerging food innovations and their potential implications.
Data collection procedures
The foresight exercise consisted of two distinct phases:
- phase I comprised a two-part Delphi survey conducted virtually. In part one, experts identified emerging NFPS innovations likely to become prevalent within 5-25 years, providing rationales and describing associated opportunities and challenges. Part two involved ranking innovations based on feasibility (likelihood of realisation under business-as-usual scenarios) and impact (overall influence on food systems considering benefits and challenges) using Likert scales ranging from 1 (least feasible/impactful) to 5 (most feasible/impactful);
- phase II utilised a mind mapping approach during a physical meeting in Rome. Five expert groups discussed innovations based on expected time horizons (H1: 0-5 years, H2: 5-15 years, H3: 15-25 years), identifying necessary steps to realise benefits and potential obstacles using the STEEP framework (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political factors).
44 emerging innovations: a comprehensive analysis
Cluster 1 – Circular economy and waste valorisation (High feasibility, High impact)
The valorisation of agricultural by-products emerged as one of the most promising innovation clusters, with experts rating these technologies highly for both feasibility (average 4.0/5) and impact (4.2/5).
Innovation 1 – Nutrient extraction from agricultural waste
Nutrient extraction from agricultural waste (Feasibility: 4.3/5, Impact: 4.5/5, Timeline: 0-5 years) involves upcycling corn husks, brewers’ spent grain (BSG), and cassava leaves into valuable nutrients. A breakthrough two-step technology transforms corn husks into gases that feed microbes, which then produce complex lipids suitable for plant-based and cell-based food formulations.
Brewers’ spent grain (BSG), containing up to 20% protein, is being upcycled through enzymatic treatments (Vilas-Franquesa et al., 2024) and extraction processes to create protein concentrates with applications ranging from meat alternatives to nutritional supplements. Companies are already scaling these technologies, with some reaching semi-commercial production levels.
Innovation 2 – Bioactive compound extraction
Bioactive compound extraction (Feasibility: 4.2/5, Impact: 4.3/5, Timeline: 0-5 years). Rice bran and oil cake, traditionally underutilised by-products, are rich sources of antioxidants, bioactive peptides, and dietary fibre.
Advanced extraction techniques using supercritical CO2 and enzymatic processes are unlocking these compounds for use in functional foods.
The global production of rice bran exceeds 60 million tonnes annually, representing a vast untapped resource for nutritional enhancement.
Innovation 4 – Wastewater nutrient recovery
Wastewater nutrient recovery (Feasibility: 3.8/5, Impact: 4.0/5, Timeline: 5-15 years). Treated wastewater and sewage bio-solids offer alternative nutrient sources for crop production.
With proper treatment protocols aligned with WHO/FAO guidelines, these resources can provide essential minerals and organic matter whilst addressing water scarcity.
The technology requires careful pathogen monitoring and heavy metal assessment but offers significant sustainability benefits.
Cluster 2 – Advanced production technologies (High feasibility, High impact)
Innovation 5 – Precision fermentation platforms
Precision fermentation platforms (Feasibility: 4.4/5, Impact: 4.5/5, Timeline: 0-5 years) Three distinct fermentation approaches are revolutionising food production:
- biomass fermentation leverages fast-growing microorganisms as direct protein sources, achieving protein contents exceeding 60% dry weight
- gas fermentation converts industrial CO2, methane, and hydrogen into proteins, with companies like Air Protein already approaching commercial scale
- precision fermentation uses genetically modified microorganisms to produce specific proteins, including dairy proteins, egg proteins, and novel functional ingredients
These technologies offer unprecedented customisation, enabling production of proteins with tailored amino acid profiles and functional properties whilst requiring 99% less land and 96% less water than conventional animal agriculture.
Innovation 11 – Controlled environment agriculture
Controlled environment agriculture (Feasibility: 4.1/5, Impact: 4.2/5, Timeline: 0-5 years). Indoor farming systems with precise control over light, temperature, humidity, and nutrients enable year-round production independent of climate. LED technology advances have reduced energy costs by 50% over the past decade, making vertical farms economically viable for high-value crops. These systems achieve yields 100-400 times higher per square metre than traditional farming whilst eliminating pesticide use and reducing water consumption by 95%.
Innovation 9 – Cellular agriculture
Cellular agriculture (Feasibility: 3.2/5, Impact: 4.3/5, Timeline: 15-25 years). Cell-based meat production involves cultivating animal cells in bioreactors to produce genuine meat without animal slaughter.
Recent advances in growth media formulation have reduced costs by 90%, though scaling challenges remain.
The technology extends to seafood, with companies producing cell-based salmon, tuna, and shrimp. Regulatory frameworks are emerging, with Singapore approving the first cell-based meat products in 2020.
Cluster 3 – Novel food sources and ingredients (Mixed feasibility, High impact)
Innovation 16 – Single-cell proteins
Single-cell proteins (Feasibility: 4.0/5, Impact: 4.2/5, Timeline: 0-5 years). Microorganisms including bacteria, yeasts, microalgae, and fungi offer rapid protein production on diverse substrates.
These proteins provide complete amino acid profiles and can be produced using industrial waste streams, agricultural residues, or even atmospheric CO2.
Production cycles measure days rather than months, with protein yields 10,000 times higher per hectare than conventional sources.
Innovation 19 – Edible insects
Edible insects (Feasibility: 3.9/5, Impact: 4.0/5, Timeline: 0-5 years). Already consumed by 2 billion people globally, insects are expanding into Western markets as sustainable protein sources.
Cricket protein contains all essential amino acids and requires 2,000 times less water than beef production.
Advanced processing technologies are creating insect-based ingredients indistinguishable from conventional proteins in food applications. The global edible insect market is projected to reach $8 billion by 2030.
Innovation 13 – Underutilised crops
Underutilised crops (Feasibility: 3.8/5, Impact: 4.1/5, Timeline: 5-15 years). Orphan crops like finger millet, teff, and bambara groundnut offer climate resilience and nutritional benefits but lack research investment.
These crops often contain higher protein, mineral, and antioxidant levels than mainstream cereals whilst thriving in marginal conditions.
Gene editing is often overhyped as a fix for crop resilience, yet its impact remains dubious – as illustrated by the HB4 wheat case – and risks diverting resources from more just and proven solutions.
Innovation 18 – Hybrid food products
Hybrid food products (Feasibility: 3.7/5, Impact: 3.8/5, Timeline: 0-5 years). Products combining plant-based ingredients with small amounts of cultivated animal cells offer a bridge between conventional and alternative proteins.
These hybrids can achieve the sensory properties of animal products whilst reducing environmental impact by 80-90%.
Early products are entering test markets, with consumer acceptance higher than fully plant-based alternatives.
Cluster 4: Digital transformation (High feasibility, High impact)
Innovation 21 – Artificial intelligence applications
Artificial intelligence applications (Feasibility: 4.2/5, Impact: 4.4/5, Timeline: 0-5 years). AI is transforming food systems across multiple domains:
- precision agriculture. Machine learning algorithms analyse satellite imagery, weather data, and soil sensors to optimise planting, irrigation, and harvest decisions (FAO, 2022);
- food safety prediction. AI models identify contamination risks by analysing production data, environmental conditions, and historical patterns;
- supply chain optimisation. Predictive analytics reduce food waste by 30% through improved demand forecasting and inventory management;
- product development. AI accelerates formulation of new products by predicting ingredient interactions and consumer preferences.
Innovation 22 – Internet of things integration
Internet of things integration (Feasibility: 4.0/5, Impact: 4.1/5, Timeline: 0-5 years). IoT sensors throughout the food chain enable real-time monitoring of temperature, humidity, chemical composition, and microbial indicators.
Blockchain integration creates immutable records of food journey from farm to fork.
Smart packaging with embedded sensors communicates directly with consumers’ devices, providing freshness indicators and personalised storage recommendations.
Innovation 23 – Digital food twins
Digital food twins (Feasibility: 2.8/5, Impact: 3.9/5, Timeline: 0-5 years). Virtual replicas of food products simulate behaviour during processing, storage, and cooking.
These models predict quality changes, optimise processing parameters, and accelerate product development.
Though energy-intensive, digital twins can reduce physical prototyping by 70% and identify optimal conditions for maintaining nutritional value and safety.
Cluster 5 – Advanced food safety and quality control (High feasibility, High impact)
Innovation 25 – Cold plasma technology
Cold plasma technology (Feasibility: 3.5/5, Impact: 4.0/5, Timeline: 5-15 years). Cold atmospheric plasma generates reactive species that inactivate pathogens without heat, preserving nutritional quality.
The technology achieves 5-log reductions in bacterial contamination within seconds whilst maintaining vitamin content.
Applications extend to pesticide degradation, allergen modification, and surface functionalisation of packaging materials. Commercial systems are entering the market for low-moisture foods and fresh produce.
Innovation 28 – Bacteriophage applications
Bacteriophage applications (Feasibility: 4.1/5, Impact: 4.2/5, Timeline: 0-5 years) Bacteriophages offer precision antimicrobial action, targeting specific pathogens without affecting beneficial microbiota.
FDA-approved phage preparations are commercially available for Listeria control in ready-to-eat foods.
New applications include phage-embedded packaging films providing continuous protection and phage cocktails addressing antimicrobial resistance. The specificity of phages eliminates concerns about resistance development affecting human medicine.
Innovation 29 – Novel tracking methods
Novel tracking methods (Feasibility: 3.6/5, Impact: 3.9/5, Timeline: 5-15 years). DNA-based tracking involves spraying food with synthetic DNA tags that survive processing and enable tracking throughout distribution.
Each tag contains unique identifiers linking to production location, date, and handling history.
The technology can identify contamination sources within hours rather than days, potentially preventing widespread outbreaks. Implementation costs are decreasing as synthesis technologies advance.
Cluster 6 – Genetic engineering and synthetic biology (Medium feasibility, High impact)
Innovation 31 – Gene-edited crops
Gene-edited crops (Feasibility: 3.7/5, Impact: 4.3/5, Timeline: 5-15 years) CRISPR and other gene editing tools enable precise modifications without introducing foreign DNA. Applications include:
- enhanced nutrition. Biofortified crops with increased vitamins, minerals, and bioactive compounds;
- improved safety. Reduced allergens and anti-nutrients;
- climate adaptation. Drought tolerance, heat resistance, and salinity tolerance;
- extended shelf life. Reduced browning and delayed senescence.
Regulatory frameworks distinguishing gene editing from traditional GMOs are emerging, potentially accelerating adoption; yet this separation is contentious, as it appears to lower safety standards and sidestep public scrutiny, raising concerns over transparency and civil rights.
Innovation 32 – Synthetic biology foods
Synthetic biology foods (Feasibility: 2.9/5, Impact: 4.1/5, Timeline: 15-25 years) Synthetic biology enables creation of entirely novel foods through designed metabolic pathways. Examples include:
- proteins with unprecedented functionalities serving as both nutrients and biosensors;
- complex flavour molecules identical to rare natural compounds;
- self-assembling food structures creating novel textures;
- nutritional compounds previously impossible to produce at scale.
These innovations push beyond current food paradigms but face significant regulatory and consumer acceptance challenges.
Cluster 7 – Personalised nutrition (Medium feasibility, Mixed impact)
Innovation 37 – Nutrigenomics applications
Nutrigenomics applications (Feasibility: 3.4/5, Impact: 3.8/5, Timeline: 5-15 years). Integration of genetic profiling with dietary recommendations enables truly personalised nutrition.
AI algorithms analyse individual genetic variants, microbiome composition, and metabolic markers to optimise food choices. Commercial services already offer basic nutrigenomic testing, though scientific validation of many gene-diet interactions remains ongoing.
Future applications include real-time dietary adjustments based on continuous biomarker monitoring.
Innovation 35 – Microbiome-targeted foods
Microbiome-targeted foods (Feasibility: 3.6/5, Impact: 4.0/5, Timeline: 5-15 years). Foods designed to modulate gut microbiota composition and function represent a frontier in nutrition.
Next-generation prebiotics, synbiotics, and postbiotics target specific microbial populations to influence health outcomes.
Advances in microbiome sequencing and metabolomics enable precise formulation of microbiome-modulating foods. Clinical evidence supporting specific formulations is rapidly accumulating.
Cluster 8 – Sustainable packaging innovations (High feasibility, High impact)
Innovation 38 – Nanopackaging technologies
Nanopackaging technologies (Feasibility: 4.0/5, Impact: 4.0/5, Timeline: 0-5 years). Nanomaterials enhance packaging performance whilst enabling smart functions:
- improved barriers. Nanoclay and graphene create superior oxygen and moisture barriers;
- antimicrobial properties. Silver and zinc oxide nanoparticles provide continuous protection;
- sensors. Colour-changing nanoparticles indicate spoilage or temperature abuse;
- self-healing. Nanocapsules release sealants when packaging is damaged.
Safety assessments focus on migration of nanomaterials into food, with regulatory frameworks developing globally.
Innovation 39 – Circular packaging systems
Circular packaging systems (Feasibility: 3.9/5, Impact: 4.1/5, Timeline: 0-5 years). Agricultural by-products are transformed into biodegradable packaging materials. Innovations include:
- chitosan films from shellfish waste providing antimicrobial properties;
- cellulose nanofibres from agricultural residues creating strong, transparent films;
- protein-based coatings from dairy or plant processing extending produce shelf life;
- mycelium packaging grown from agricultural waste replacing polystyrene.
These materials often provide active functions whilst addressing plastic pollution.
Cluster 9 – Emerging consumption trends (Variable feasibility and impact)
Innovation 42 – E-commerce integration
E-commerce integration (Feasibility: 4.3/5, Impact: 3.8/5, Timeline: 0-5 years). Digital food retail has accelerated dramatically, with innovations including:
- AI-powered meal planning and automated ordering;
- drone and autonomous vehicle delivery reducing last-mile emissions;
- dark kitchens optimising delivery-only food production;
- direct-to-consumer models connecting producers with consumers.
Food safety challenges include maintaining cold chains and ensuring product integrity during extended distribution.
Innovation 40 – Reformulated products
Reformulated products (Feasibility: 4.2/5, Impact: 3.9/5, Timeline: 0-5 years). Sugar and salt reduction drives innovation in:
- sweet proteins like miraculin and thaumatin providing sweetness without calories;
- enzymatic modification of sugars to non-digestible fibres;
- salt taste enhancers reducing sodium by 30-50%;
- fermentation creating umami compounds (e.g. Salicornia, miso, umeboshi) replacing salt.
Regulatory approval and consumer acceptance of novel ingredients remain challenges.
Strategic implications and future trajectories
Innovation synergies and convergence
The analysis reveals significant synergistic potential among innovations. Precision fermentation combined with AI-driven optimisation accelerates development of novel proteins.
Cellular agriculture integrated with controlled environment systems enables localised production. Digital twins coupled with blockchain create transparent, optimised supply chains.
These convergences suggest that future food systems will feature integrated technology platforms rather than isolated innovations.
Readiness disparities and implementation challenges
Technological readiness varies dramatically across innovations. Near-term technologies like agricultural waste valorisation and digital applications face primarily scaling challenges. Medium-term innovations including cellular agriculture and gene editing require regulatory framework development and infrastructure investment. Long-term synthetic biology applications demand fundamental research breakthroughs and societal dialogue about acceptable modifications to food.
Geographic disparities in innovation adoption threaten to exacerbate global inequalities. High-income countries lead in cellular agriculture and synthetic biology, whilst many promising innovations like underutilised crops and insect farming originate in lower-income regions but lack investment for scaling. Ensuring equitable access to innovations requires deliberate technology transfer and capacity building initiatives.
Critical success factors for implementation
The expert assessment identified essential factors determining successful deployment:
- technical requirements. Infrastructure availability varies dramatically between innovations. Fermentation requires bioreactor facilities, cellular agriculture needs cell culture expertise, and digital technologies demand connectivity infrastructure. Skills gaps in biotechnology, data science, and novel food processing must be addressed through education and training programmes;
- regulatory evolution. Current frameworks designed for conventional foods require fundamental adaptation. Risk assessment methodologies must evolve to evaluate novel proteins, production environments, and genetic modifications. International harmonisation prevents regulatory fragmentation that could impede innovation whilst ensuring safety;
- consumer engagement. Transparent communication about benefits and risks builds trust essential for adoption. Cultural sensitivity recognises that innovations acceptable in one region may face resistance elsewhere. Education programmes should emphasise not just safety but also sustainability and nutritional benefits;
- economic viability. High initial investments characterise many innovations, requiring patient capital and government support. Business models must ensure benefits reach smallholder farmers and traditional food producers. True cost accounting incorporating environmental and health impacts could shift economic advantages toward sustainable innovations.
Conclusions
This comprehensive analysis of 44 emerging innovations in new food sources and production systems reveals a transformative landscape poised to address multiple global challenges simultaneously. The systematic foresight exercise demonstrates that the future of food will be characterised by convergent technologies, circular resource flows, and unprecedented customisation capabilities.
The identification of innovations across three time horizons enables strategic planning and resource allocation:
- near-term opportunities in waste valorisation, fermentation, and digitalisation offer immediate pathways to enhanced sustainability and food safety;
- medium-term developments in cellular agriculture, gene editing, and novel proteins promise transformative changes requiring proactive preparation;
- long-term synthetic biology applications present possibilities limited only by imagination and ethical boundaries.
Realising the potential of these innovations requires addressing complex interdependencies among technical, regulatory, social, economic, and environmental factors. The success of individual innovations depends not just on technological advancement but on creating enabling ecosystems that support research, development, scaling, and equitable deployment.
The study underscores that the transformation of food systems is not a distant possibility but an ongoing reality requiring immediate engagement. By identifying promising innovations, assessing their trajectories, and understanding implementation requirements, stakeholders can shape this transformation to enhance food security, nutrition, and sustainability whilst ensuring safety and equity.
As we stand at this inflection point in food system evolution, the choices made today about which innovations to pursue, how to regulate them, and how to ensure equitable access will determine the nature of food systems for generations to come. The comprehensive foresight analysis provides a roadmap for navigating this complex landscape, but success ultimately depends on collective action across all stakeholders in the global food system (FAO, 2024).
Dario Dongo
Cover art copyright © 2025 Dario Dongo (AI-assisted creation)
References
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2022). The state of food and agriculture 2022: Leveraging automation in agriculture for transforming agrifood systems. FAO. https://www.fao.org/3/cb9479en/online/cb9479en.html
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2024). The state of food and agriculture 2024: Value-driven transformation of agrifood systems. FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cd2616en
- Mukherjee, K., Trieb, J., Niegowska Conforti, M., Di Martino, M., Fattori, V., & Lipp, M. (2025). Exploring the future landscape of new food sources and production systems: A foresight exercise. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://doi.org/10.4060/cd4981en
- Vilas-Franquesa, A., Montemurro, M., Casertano, M., & Fogliano, V. (2024). The food by-products bioprocess wheel: A guidance tool for the food industry. Trends in Food Science & Technology, 152, 104652. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tifs.2024.104652
Dario Dongo, lawyer and journalist, PhD in international food law, founder of WIISE (FARE - GIFT - Food Times) and Égalité.
